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アベゲドン 

隔日にスーパーに出かけて、食品等を買うのは私の役目。過去10年間程度、物価の動きを肌で感じてきた。

このところ生鮮食品の値上がりが目立つ。秋の長雨、そして冬に入っての厳しい寒波が影響しているのだろうが、長い目で見ても価格が高騰し始めている。その他の物品も、じわりじわりと値上がりするか、単位包装当たりの容量が減っている。

UBSの投資担当者が、日本経済のスタグフレーションを予測している。デフレと低成長のスタグフレーションではなく、インフレの亢進に見合わぬ、低成長率というわけだ。対総GDP政府負債が300%を超え、10年物の国債利率が5%を超えるような事態が生じうる。こうなると、金融システムが障害され、地域銀行の破綻が進む。海外の投資家は、日本政府の借金の持続に疑問を持ち、日本国債から一斉に手を引くだろう。・・・というわけだ。この数か月以内に生じることはないだろうが、と述べているが、海外の短期投機筋は、日本の経済財政政策がひっくり返るのを固唾をのんで見守っている。

毎年、80兆円国債を買い付けるとしていた日銀も、今年は60兆円程度の買い付けに終わり、来年は40兆円程度に落ちる。金融緩和策から抜け出ようとしているのだ。だが、それが国債価格の暴落、国債利率の上昇を来す可能性がある。

アルマゲドンから言い換えた、アベゲドンの到来である。

以下、引用~~~

UBS Warns of 'Abegeddon' Risk in Japan
Ansuya Harjani | @Ansuya_H
Published 11:38 PM ET Tue, 4 June 2013 Updated 8:38 PM ET Thu, 6 June 2013
CNBC.com
Cityscape, Shinjuku-ku Tokyo Japan
Yoshinori Kuwahara | Flickr | Getty Images
Cityscape, Shinjuku-ku Tokyo Japan

Japan risks facing stagflation - where accelerating inflation is not met by higher growth rates - if "Abenomics" fails to restore momentum in the world's third largest economy, warned Alex Friedman, global chief investment officer at UBS Wealth Management.

"It's possible we could see a stagflation scenario, where you see inflation in asset prices but no real growth. The ultimate story is you need a hand off to real growth - in Japan there's a real question of whether that's possible," Friedman told CNBC Asia's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday.

(Read More: Consumers Still to Buy Into Abe's Economic Experiment )

"If you don't have growth, then you end up with a potential Armageddon story, something we would call Abegeddon," he added.

In an "Abegeddon" scenario, Friedman said investors may grow increasingly concerned about the sustainability of Japanese debt levels that could lead to a "stampede" out of government bonds.

(Poll: Does Abe's 'Third Arrow' Go Far Enough? )
Under these circumstances, Japan's debt to gross domestic product ratio would rise above 300 percent from 226 percent currently, and the 10-year government bond yield could approach 5 percent, he predicted, from 0.86 percent.

"This would damage the financial system significantly, and regional bank capital would be severely impaired," Friedman added.

(Read More: Relax, Sign Points to Eventual Rally in Japan Stocks )

Will Japan Face a 'Abe-geddon' Scenario? Will Japan Face a 'Abe-geddon' Scenario?
11:13 PM ET Tue, 4 June 2013
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's radical policies have thus far stoked a rally in equity prices, with the benchmark Nikkei 225 rising 44 percent over the past six months. Inflation, meantime, is beginning to show up in the economy, with consumer prices in Tokyo rising for the first time since 2009 in May. A weak yen, which has depreciated 22 percent against the U.S. dollar over the past six months, could also lead to imported inflation. The Bank of Japan has set an inflation target of 2 percent to be achieved over the next two years.

On Wednesday, Abe unveiled the keenly-anticipated long-term growth plan to get the world's third largest economy on track.

The wide-ranging plan includes pledging to raise incomes by 3 percent annually over the next decade and set up special economic zones to attract foreign investment.

Short Term Outlook Less Bearish

It will take years before the success of Abe's policies can be fully judged, said Friedman, noting that the worst case scenario he outlined is unlikely to play out in the coming months.

"With inflation likely to remain close to zero, we do not expect a stampede out of the bond market: any short-term sell-off would likely be met by temporary Bank of Japan stabilization measures," Friedman said.

(Read More: Market Strife Puts Japan Policies in a Flux )
"We are keeping a small overweight position in Japanese equities over our six-month horizon as we monitor the potential changes in long-term dynamics closely," he added.

By CNBC's Ansuya Harjani

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